股指反攻缺乏基本面支撑

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总结

[股指反击缺乏基本面支撑]股指的反弹不如预期,并且近期出现了回调。美联储的降息预计将被修改,6月份的宏观经济数据可能成为近期股市风险点。此外,科技板块正在接近市场,它对资金方面产生了脉冲效应。 (期货日报)

上证指数可能回到2850-3000的振荡范围

股指的反弹并不像预期的那样好,并且最近出现了调整。美联储的降息预计将被修改,6月份的宏观经济数据可能成为近期股市风险点。此外,科技板块正在接近市场,它对资金方面产生了脉冲效应。

美联储的降息预计将被下调,对A股的影响将大大缩短。上周五公布的美国非农数据明显好于预期。 6月份,非农就业人数增加了224,000人,比5月份的72,000人大幅增加,也高于市场预期的16万人。强劲的就业数据被驱散。部分担心美国经济衰退,美国降息预期有所减弱。这可以从芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察数据中看出。非农业数据公布后,美联储7月降息的可能性保持不变,为100%,但降息的可能性增加,降息的可能性降低。上周,欧洲央行再次发表温和言论。澳大利亚储备银行将利率下调25个基点,并连续第二个月降息。全球货币宽松政策仍有望,但美联储的降息预计将会下调。 6月底之后,美联储的降息预计将趋于饱和。方向上只有微弱的弱点。如果美联储的降息预期会减弱,对A股的影响将是短期的短期收益。

短期看,负面影响有二,一方面支撑美元反弹,美元指数在非农数据公布后连续走强,人民币汇率承压,而人民币汇率对甲股有指向作用;另一方面,降息预期减弱将打击由宽松预期带来的全球市场乐观情绪,对甲股的影响会反映在外资的阶段性流出。长期看,美联储降息基本势在必行,只是时间和节奏问题,只要美联储进入宽松周期,我国即具备了宽松的空间,但是否宽松还是要看自身经济环境,因此美联储短期降息预期下降对我国流动性环境影响不大。此外,美国经济具备韧性,避免了美联储进行衰退式降息。若美国经济出现大滑坡,全球经济衰退的强度将会大于无风险收益率下降的幅度,容易引发全球性股灾,包括甲股在内的新兴市场股市难以独善其身。因此,美国经济缓慢下行,无风险收益率有序下降,中长期看是对于全球股市最佳的环境。

XXIt is difficult to make a positive contribution to the fundamentals in June, and the A-shares are weak. The fundamentals data for June will be released from this week, but the fundamentals are difficult to provide positive contributions to the stock market. In terms of social welfare, the data released by the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission last week showed that the new RMB loans in the first half of the year were more than 9 trillion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, RMB loans totaled 5.8 trillion yuan, that is, RMB loans in the second quarter were only over RMB 3 trillion. The scale was much smaller than that in the first quarter. It was also lower than the same period of last year. The credit expansion will hinder China’s economic recovery or require further credit policy. stimulate. In terms of industrial production, the manufacturing PMI for June was 49.4%, which was the same as the previous value, and was below the glory line for two consecutive months. High-frequency indicators The consumption of coal in the six major power plants fell 10.12% year-on-year in June, which was narrower than the decline in May, but it was still negative growth, indicating that the industrial added value in June may continue to fall. In terms of price, the PMI ex-factory price in June and the purchase price of PMI's main raw materials both fell sharply, down 3.6% and 2.8% respectively. Based on this, it is inferred that the PPI in June will have a large decline and even a risk of turning negative. Therefore, in the following week, we expect that the credit, “price” and “quantity” data will not exceed expectations, and even further weaken, the macro economy continues to spur the bottom, and the negative impact of fundamentals on A shares is still During the digestion process.

xx科技板块的分流效果不强,对资金方面有一定的影响。周一A股大幅下挫,恰逢科技板的临近。一些分析将两者联系起来,但我们认为科技板块并不构成股市下跌的原因。最近,首批25家科技企业已经确认并将于7月22日上市。据统计,这25家科技企业筹集的资金总额为310.89亿元,上海股票的市值市场规模超过30万亿元,科技委员会的融资规模仅为股票的千分之一左右,订阅时间分布在今天和明天。两周内,一天的平均影响很小。同时,由于签订后的现行支付制度,没有必要提前冻结资金。因此,在可比较的环境下,基金在科技委员会上市前的转移效应应该比创业板上市前弱。虽然A股的分割效果不会太强,但也需要注意签收后的集中支付日期。这是周五和下周一和周二,这将给股市基金带来一些压力。

最近的反攻股指疲软是由于之前对贸易问题的乐观情绪已经部分释放,另一方面可能反映了当前投资者对基本面的担忧。如果美联储的降息预计会在早期升温,预计将会出现缩减规模的风险。未来,人民币汇率可能面临贬值压力。基础数据很难提供支持。在阶段性反弹后兑现的意愿将对股指产生一定的压力。上证指数可能回到2850-3000的振荡区间。

来源:期货每日

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